Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 20.978261 25.188752 29.809759 35.229666 41.383373 48.124221 56.036797
2025-10-12 15.123651 20.731056 27.497774 36.139560 46.749853 59.217462 74.830944
2025-10-19 11.710964 17.868123 25.873854 36.773320 50.932077 68.400600 91.250340
2025-10-26 9.538450 15.983164 24.914261 37.731503 55.148177 77.465465 107.638106
2025-11-02 7.542983 13.873792 23.207895 37.284806 57.218462 83.641718 120.417379
2025-11-09 6.187001 12.416461 22.137245 37.457980 59.942513 90.617991 134.359804
2025-11-16 5.038461 11.039852 20.943566 37.226612 61.938064 96.558017 147.023354
2025-11-23 3.991366 9.602220 19.416335 36.257308 62.677989 100.660647 157.210709
2025-11-30 3.474338 9.029760 19.215619 37.294757 66.396102 109.064459 173.611177
2025-12-07 2.819148 8.030014 18.121301 36.731548 67.557211 113.741899 184.828544
2025-12-14 2.393680 7.412300 17.617247 37.075136 70.103472 120.500239 199.201121
2025-12-21 1.841028 6.354033 16.115948 35.511745 69.426926 122.320383 206.349162
2025-12-28 1.619207 6.074754 16.170092 36.842987 73.772659 132.269731 226.330601
2026-01-04 1.383611 5.696038 15.973056 37.705593 77.409327 141.323809 245.383137
2026-01-11 1.170121 5.307698 15.688521 38.355473 80.688817 149.913002 263.977245
2026-01-18 1.010458 5.025830 15.592098 39.345025 84.589817 159.609328 284.533849
2026-01-25 0.800639 4.492950 14.817567 38.883562 85.846742 165.039016 298.598870
2026-02-01 0.657510 4.128852 14.383306 39.062456 88.244783 172.389428 315.848559
2026-02-08 0.523853 3.731083 13.786996 38.823442 89.825573 178.401423 331.106567
2026-02-15 0.392521 3.257908 12.891060 37.821988 89.877177 181.799731 342.232163
2026-02-22 0.340407 3.126691 12.921679 38.893840 93.955352 192.182339 364.902233
2026-03-01 0.259370 2.783721 12.266098 38.311981 94.750010 196.902839 378.432266
2026-03-08 0.211456 2.589982 12.021325 38.666955 97.406971 204.936117 397.590669